World Food needs Benefit Average Soybean Producers

Recently I participated in a meeting where the major topic was the growing world population and the future need for food. Considerable attention was devoted to various projections that the world's population is poised to increase dramatically.

The most conservative estimates indicated an increase of 2 billion to 3 billion people in the world population over the next 30 years.

During the meeting, one person made a startling comment. In effect, he said, "We've been hearing about hungry people, growing populations, and world food needs for years. Yet the average soybean producer really isn't any better off because of these factors."

This statement surprised me and I promised myself that I'd check into the data to see if we can get a better handle on what the growth of world food needs means to the soybean producer.

I thought it might be interesting to identify some of the countries that currently lead in soybean consumption and compare their current import levels with those of 30 years ago.

Soybean imports to Japan are an astonishing story.

Already one of the major soybean importing nations in 1962, Japan's soybean imports have increased more than four-fold over the three decades since then. By 1993, those imports exceeded 184 million bushels. Of course, much of those imports come from the United States.

But Japan is only part of the story. Other countries, such as Columbia, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Spain also have dramatically increased soybean imports.

Each of these seven countries is now in the top group of soybean importing nations. Their 1993 imports ranged from the level of about 5 million bushels for Costa Rica and Columbia to more than 75 million bushels for Spain and Mexico.

These countries, however, are not necessarily the largest importers -- even after Japan. Instead, what is particularly interesting is that 30 years ago, soybean imports into these nations were insignificant. Their total imports in 1962 were only slightly more than one million bushels -- a pittance compared to their 1993 imports, which exceeded 250 million bushels.

But do any of these numbers really matter to the average soybean producer?

Just the increase in soybean imports by Japan and those other seven countries exceeds 388 million bushels. Using 1996 average yields in the U.S. at 37.6 bushels per acre, this increased level of imports alone equals the production from more than 10 million acres of U.S. cropland.

Interestingly, soybean acreage in Illinois in 1996 was 9.9 million acres. So, without the increase in soybean imports of just these eight countries, we would need to find a new home for U.S. soybean production equal to that from the entire State of Illinois.

Maybe hungry people, growing populations, and world food needs have indeed mattered to the average soybean producer over the last 30 years. And, if we are to maintain and increase the profitability of soybean production, it's likely that these global variables will be just as important over the next 30 years.

--------

Steve Sonka serves as director of the National Soybean Research Laboratory at the University of Illinois the College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences.