Presentations and Talks

Using System Dynamics 
and 3-Dimensional Visualization 
to Explore the Dynamics of 
Future Global Protein Consumption

Steve Sonka, Donna Fisher, and Randall Westgren¹

Strategic decision making is particularly difficult relative to research investments, where the uncertainty inherent in research and lengthy time lags require investments to be made far before outcomes are known.  This paper reports upon the development and evaluation of the Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) system, a tool created to assist managers to improve their perspective of future protein needs.  This research effort was funded by the Illinois Soybean Checkoff Board to aid them in strategic allocation of research funds.

The PCD system includes a Powersim model, the output of which is displayed using a 3-dimensional visualization tool, In3D.  The system dynamics model component relates population and income growth to regional protein needs and malnutrition. The model tracks estimated consumption annually (for the years 2001 to 2025) of six agricultural commodities that serve as sources of protein for humans in eight regions that encompass the world. The system dynamics model is designed so that alternative scenarios of the future can be examined using population and income projections of the World Bank and the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization.

 The output of the system dynamics model is displayed using 3-dimensional visualization techniques.  The visualization component was developed in collaboration with design experts from the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois.

 Through formal experiments with actual manager in the soybean sector, the effects of use of the PCD system are being formally evaluated.  This evaluation documents the effects of scenario modeling and visualization on individual and group decision-making processes.

[1] Authors are respectively Director, National Soybean Research Lab and holder of the Soybean Industry Chair in Agricultural Strategy; graduate research assistant; and Associate Professor of Agricultural Management; all at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA.